🚨 Top 5 Myths About Project Forecasting – BUSTED
🔮 Project controllers are often seen as the fortune tellers and forecasters of project performance. But not all predictions are created equal… and not all assumptions hold up.
Which forecasting myth do we need to be most aware of?
Here are the Top 5 myths that continue to trip up even experienced teams:
1. “Once the baseline is approved, forecasts won’t change much”
Myth: The original project plan is accurate enough, and forecasts should stay close to it.
Reality: Forecasts must continuously evolve. Changes in scope, resource availability, market conditions, and productivity mean that forecasts should be dynamic, not static.
2. “Earned Value gives you all the answers”
Myth: Earned Value Management (EVM) provides a complete and reliable forecast on its own.
Reality: While EVM is powerful, it doesn’t account for future risks, productivity trends, or changes in execution strategy. Forecasting requires contextual inputs beyond CPI and SPI.
3. “Forecasting is just guessing with numbers”
Myth: Forecasts are speculative and unreliable, so there’s little point in refining them.
Reality: Forecasts are educated predictions based on data, trends, and performance. With good inputs and regular updates, they are critical tools for proactive decision-making.
4. “You only need to re-forecast when something goes wrong”
Myth: Forecasting is a reactive process triggered by major issues.
Reality: Forecasting should be a proactive, regular discipline—not just a response to crisis. Early identification of trends enables timely corrective actions.
5. “More detail means a better forecast”
Myth: The more detailed your schedule and cost model, the more accurate your forecast.
Reality: Excessive detail can obscure key trends and slow down updates. A forecast must balance accuracy, timeliness, and relevance. Focus on what’s driving the outcomes.
Which myth have you encountered the most? Add your experience or share this with your team. Feel free to repost 🔁
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